According to Fitch rupee is expected to weaken to 72 to a dollar by the end of December 2019, and further to 73 by December 2020, from 69.82 to a dollar in end December 2018.
The country's gross domestic product (GDP) growth is likely to be 8.8 to 9 per cent in the current financial year, driven by agriculture and industry sectors, Care Ratings said in a report. The country's economy had contracted by 7.3 per cent in fiscal 2020-21. The agency said the outlook for the Indian economy on almost all counts in FY22 would look seemingly better than FY21 on account of the negative base effect.
The airline industry is projected to register a net profit of $25.7 billion in 2024 as more normal growth is expected in both passenger and cargo segments, global grouping IATA said on Wednesday. For 2023, the net profit is estimated at $23.3 billion, significantly higher than the $9.8 billion projected by the International Air Transport Association (IATA) in June this year. IATA has more than 300 airlines as members.
Billionaire Gautam Adani's embattled conglomerate said its balance sheet is "very healthy" and is laser focused on continuing business momentum, as it looked to reassure investors to keep faith in the conglomerate despite a share rout triggered by a damning report by a US short-seller. Group CFO Jugeshinder (Robbie) Singh in an earnings call said the group is confident of its internal controls, compliance and corporate governance. Separately, it released a compendium of group companies to highlight that it has adequate cash reserves and has ability to refinance debt.
Global rating agency Fitch on Friday pegged India's growth at 5.5 per cent in the current fiscal and 6 per cent in 2015-16 and affirmed the country's rating outlook at stable level.
'India has always been a bottom-up stock-picking market, and as growth recovers with higher liquidity, mid and small-caps always tend to outperform.'
Revision in the context of an ongoing global review affecting financial institutions: Moody's
Fitch reaffirmed India's rating at 'BBB-' with a Stable Outlook saying the rating balances a still strong medium-term growth outlook compared with similar category peers and relative external resilience stemming from solid foreign-reserve buffers against high public debt, a weak financial sector and some lagging structural factors, including governance indicators and GDP per capita.
Global trends, macroeconomic data, and the outcome of the US Fed policy meeting are the major factors that will drive the movement in the domestic equity markets this week, analysts said. "In the upcoming data-centric week, the focus will be on crucial releases, including inflation data from India and the US. "Indian inflation is expected to rise, while US inflation will remain steady.
India's real GDP growth will decline marginally to 6.3 per cent in 2024 from the 6.4 per cent estimated for 2023, an American brokerage firm said on Monday. The next calendar year will be of two halves, wherein the government spending before the upcoming General Elections will be the key driver for growth, while after the elections, it will be the re-acceleration in investment growth, especially from the private sector, Goldman Sachs said in a report. From a fiscal year perspective, the brokerage said it expects growth to accelerate to 6.5 per cent for FY25 from the 6.2 per cent it has projected for the ongoing FY24, it added.
"Profitability of companies will be negatively impacted due to rising input prices, as the ability of companies to pass on these hikes to customers is limited. Further, higher interest rate outlook would lead to lower investment, as profitability margins will be reduced," Crisil Ratings Director Pawan Agrawal said over the conference call.
The lack of clarity on who is next in line, when the time comes, as indeed it will one day some day, reflects poorly on the management of the world's largest political party. It scarcely need be said that a squabble between the contenders, Shah and Yogi, is exactly what the doctor ordered for the Opposition, notes Krishna Prasad.
In a dazzling resurgence, foreign investors have graced the Indian equity markets with an influx of nearly Rs 1.5 lakh crore in 2023, fuelled by optimism over the country's resilient economic fundamentals amid shadows of a gloomy global scenario. Experts believe that the positive trend may continue in 2024. This follows Indian equities witnessing the worst-ever net outflow of Rs 1.21 lakh crore by FPIs in 2022 on aggressive rate hikes by the central banks globally after net inflows for three consecutive years.
'As the Indian economy continues to expand over the next three years, mid- and small-caps should do well as they have higher exposure to the domestic economy than large-caps.'
India's sovereign rating could be cut if the government loosens fiscal policy in the run-up to elections, says Fitch.
A surge in international oil prices may translate into an increase in the retail selling price of petrol and diesel in India as oil companies face extreme margin squeeze, sources said. Petrol and diesel prices have remained unchanged for 12 days but now the international rate surge is exerting pressure. Current prices of petrol and diesel in the international market are higher by around $4-6 per barrel as compared to average prices during August. However, no increase in retail prices has been affected by oil companies so far, sources said.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday cut its projection of India's economic growth in 2022 to 6.8 per cent, as it joins other global agencies that have trimmed forecasts. The IMF had in July projected a gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 7.4 per cent for India in the fiscal year that started in April 2022. Even that forecast was lower than 8.2 per cent projected in January this year. India had grown at 8.7 per cent in 2021-22 fiscal (April 2021 to March 2022).
'We are in a sweet spot.' 'Equity, on a standalone basis, will continue to remain the asset class to stay invested in.'
A recession is unlikely in the APAC region in the coming year, although the area will face headwinds from higher interest rates and slower global trade growth, Moody's Analytics said on Thursday. In its analysis titled 'APAC Outlook: A Coming Downshift', Moody's said India is headed for slower growth next year more in line with its long-term potential. On the upside, inward investment and productivity gains in technology as well as in agriculture could accelerate growth.
'We are cautious only on sub-sectors that have seen massive melt-up during the past six months.'
According to Soumya Kanti Ghosh, chief economic advisor of the State Bank of India group, a 50 bps rate cut is a possibility, but 25 bps is more likely.
The rating agency also expects merchandise exports to grow by 8-10 per cent in the next fiscal year.
Retail inflation declined to a three-month low of 5.1 per cent in January, mainly due to subdued prices of vegetables, fruits and other food items, according to government data released on Monday. The fall indicates that retail inflation is inching towards the Reserve Bank's comfort level of 4 per cent. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) based inflation was on the rise for two straight months after touching a trough of 4.9 per cent in October 2023. In December, it stood at 5.69 per cent.
While the economy seems to be on a firm growth path, the fight against inflation is not over yet. Shaktikanta Das seems to be in no hurry. After playing well through a five-year Test match, he doesn't want to get out hit wicket, observes Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
Announcing the bi-monthly monetary policy, Reserve Bank of India Governor Shaktikanta Das said the RBI's internal survey says manufacturing, services and infrastructure sector firms are optimistic of the business outlook.
The services sector growth in India rose to a 13-year high in September on sharp increase in new business amid strong demand conditions, and job numbers continued to increase as overall business mood improved, a monthly survey said on Thursday. The seasonally adjusted S&P Global India Services PMI Business Activity Index rose from 60.1 in August to 61 in September, signalling a sharp upturn in output. In Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) parlance, a print above 50 means expansion while a score below 50 denotes contraction.
US rate hike fear keeps Asian firms in check; India most upbeat.
Container Corporation of India (Concor) has been the worst performer among major logistics & port stocks registering returns of about 4 per cent over the past three months as compared to 10-12 per cent for peers Gateway Distriparks and Adani Ports and SEZ. Uncertain outlook on the export-import (EXIM) trade front, market share loss, lack of progress on divestment, and weak June quarter results weighed on the stock. Volume and margin movement will be key triggers for the stock going ahead. As was the case in the previous quarter, margin performance was muted even in the June quarter. Operating profit in the quarter was down 17 per cent at Rs 391 crore missing estimates by over 15 per cent. Operating profit margins at 20.4 per cent, too, were down sharply by 350 basis points over the year-ago quarter.
Economy showing mixed signals, outlook challenging: FinMin
Brokerage firms on Wednesday appeared divided in their calls on Larsen & Toubro (L&T) after the company's 2023-24 (FY24) October-December quarter (third quarter, or Q3) performance and guidance for the quarters ahead. While few stayed optimistic about the stock over future order inflow prospects, others saw increasing exposure to West Asia and fixed price contracts as a concern. In Wednesday's trade, L&T's share price closed at Rs 3,480 per piece, 4.22 per cent down from its previous day's close.
Kotak Mahindra Bank was the biggest loser in the Sensex pack, sliding 2.68 per cent, followed by Tech Mahindra, Mahindra & Mahindra, Axis Bank, Hindustan Unilever, Tata Motors, Tata Consultancy Services, Bajaj Finserv, Bajaj Finance, Nestle and Titan. In contrast, NTPC, Power Grid, Larsen & Toubro, HDFC, Reliance and HDFC Bank were the gainers.
Gold is currently trading at Rs 25,200 for 10 grams.
Brokerages believe that the Bharatiya Janata Party's (BJP's) stronger-than-expected showing in state elections reduces political risks for the domestic markets going into 2024. However, after the short-term excitement, the focus will soon shift to earnings, global liquidity conditions, and the interest rate trajectory. "BJP's win in the three state elections is much better than what exit polls suggested and reinforces the consensus expectations of a Modi win in the 2024 national elections with a greater likelihood of 300+ seats for the BJP.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Friday decided to leave the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4 per cent but maintained an accommodative stance, implying rate cuts in the future if need arises to support the economy hit by the Covid-19 pandemic.
Lenders in India, comprising banks and finance companies, anticipate robust growth in retail credit during the upcoming festival season, stretching from September to December 2023. This expectation is based on resilient demand, government initiatives, and elections in key states.
Moody's downgraded local currency bank deposit ratings.
The repo rate has been left unchanged at 4 per cent, Governor Shaktikanta Das said while announcing the decisions taken by the central bank's MPC.
In a remarkable comeback, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have pumped Rs 1.7 lakh crore into the Indian equity markets in 2023, propelled by confidence in the country's robust economic fundamentals amid a challenging global landscape. The year 2023 has witnessed massive investment by FPIs, thanks to the sharp uptick in inflows of Rs 66,134 crore in December. Going forward, FPI flows are expected to be robust.
Among the Sensex firms, Bajaj Finance emerged as the biggest gainer by climbing 2.95 per cent. Tata Motors, Bajaj Finserv, IndusInd Bank, Sun Pharma, Mahindra & Mahindra, State Bank of India, Larsen & Toubro, HDFC, HDFC Bank, Maruti, Reliance Industries and Bharti Airtel were the other major winners. HCL Technologies, Axis Bank, ICICI Bank, Tech Mahindra and Titan were among the laggards.
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